Trump threatens to double Mexico tariffs unless it stops about 1,500 migrants

The migrants: An estimated 1,500 people, mostly from Central America, set off Tuesday from Tapachula, near Mexico's border with Guatemala, Reuters reported. Texas Public Radio put estimates at 1,000 to 2,000 and said the group was heading toward Mexico City. Some migrants told news agencies they hoped Democrats' election wins, which give the party control of Congress in January, would open a path to live and work in the United States.

Mexico's answer: "Not a single migrant caravan has reached the north" since January 2025, Sheinbaum said at her daily briefing, the AP reported. She said two caravans are crossing southern Mexico: one that shrank from about 600 people to fewer than 100, and a group from Honduras that officials are telling it will not be possible to cross into the U.S., KJZZ reported. Mexico is looking to return migrants to their home countries, and "there will be no acts of repression," she said, according to Reuters.

The U.S. side: "This illegal migrant caravan will NOT be allowed to enter our country. Full stop," Homeland Security Secretary Markwayne Mullin wrote after Trump's post, Reuters reported. Two weeks ago the State Department announced visa restrictions on more than 15 people accused of organizing or helping caravans, UPI reported.

What "doubled" could mean: Trump did not say which tariffs would rise, when, or whether trade-pact exemptions would stay, FreightWaves reported. Mexican steel and aluminum now face 50% tariffs and Mexican-made cars 25%, according to FreightWaves and the New York Post. Doubled, those would be 100% and 50%. Goods that qualify for the U.S.-Mexico-Canada trade pact pay 0%, so a literal doubling would not touch them without a new tariff. It is also unclear what legal authority Trump would use after the Supreme Court rejected his emergency tariff powers in February, Bloomberg Law and Texas Public Radio reported.

How outlets framed it: Fox News led with the threat and the caravan "surge," and noted that Texas Attorney General-elect Nathan Johnson, a Democrat, could drop the state's defense of its SB4 border-arrest law. The AP led with Sheinbaum's rebuttal. The New York Post framed the threat as tied to the caravan reaching the U.S. Texas Public Radio tied it to Trump's recent acknowledgment that his deportation policies may have cost Republicans votes.

What's still unknown: As of Friday morning, Nov. 13, the White House had not issued a formal tariff order. Still unknown is which goods and rates an order would cover, and whether the caravan holds together as it moves north. Sheinbaum travels to China next week for the APEC summit, Texas Public Radio reported.

This is a threat in a social media post, not a tariff order. Caravan size estimates vary: Reuters reported about 1,500 people, Spanish agency EFE about 2,000 when the group set out (via FreightWaves), and Texas Public Radio said 1,000 to 2,000. The "doubled" figures in the table are simple arithmetic on current rates reported by FreightWaves and the New York Post, not announced rates. Photos are file images. Checked Friday morning, Nov. 13: US Brief found no report that a tariff order had been issued; Sheinbaum's public response remains her Thursday briefing.