Trump approval hits record-low 33% in Post-ABC poll, 16 days out

A second poll agrees: The NBC News Decision Desk Poll, run with SurveyMonkey and also released Sunday, put Trump at 34% approve and 66% disapprove among adults, a second-term low, and 39% to 61% among registered voters. It found 71% say the country is on the wrong track, the highest of his second term. NBC surveyed 19,135 adults Sept. 28–Oct. 12 (margin plus or minus 2.6 points). Both results line up with Fox News' own Oct. 9–12 poll, which had Trump at 36%, his lowest in any Fox survey.

The House vote: In the Post-ABC poll, likely voters back Democratic House candidates 52% to 44%, and registered voters 50% to 42%, up from a 3-point gap in a July Post-Ipsos poll. Independents who are likely to vote favor Democrats 56% to 35%. NBC found registered voters prefer Democrats to control Congress 55% to 45%, and Fox had Democrats ahead 54% to 45%. ABC cautions that the national question is only a barometer: control is decided district by district. In fall 2022 its poll showed registered voters nearly split and Republicans won the House; in 2018 Democrats led by 11 and won it.

The cost of living: Seventy-one percent in the Post-ABC poll call gasoline unaffordable, up from 28% in February, before the Iran war pushed fuel prices up. Sixty-five percent say the same of health care and 60% of groceries. Trump's approval on the cost of living is 21% in that poll and 27% in NBC's. In the NBC poll, 44% say their finances are worse than a year ago and 18% say better. Just 14% expect to receive the $5,000 payment Trump has promised if Republicans keep Congress, while 71% do not, including 47% of Republicans.

Where Trump holds up: Immigration and border security remain his best issues, at 38% approval in the Post-ABC poll and 43% in NBC's. Seventy-nine percent of Republicans approve of him (Post-ABC), and 61% of Republicans and Republican-leaning independents say the party should follow his leadership going forward. Americans trust Republicans over Democrats on crime by 5 points. Voters who plan to vote in person on Election Day, about 4 in 10 likely voters, favor Republicans by 11 points, while mail and early voters lean Democratic.

Weak spot: The polls do not show voters embracing Democrats, only turning on Trump. NBC found 43% view the Democratic Party favorably and 57% unfavorably, and the Post-ABC poll has it 10 points underwater. Democratic socialism, which 42% of Democratic-aligned adults in the NBC poll say describes them, is viewed unfavorably by 59% of Americans in the Post-ABC poll. A 56% majority in NBC's poll say corruption is equally bad in both parties, and Americans split 52% to 48% on whether a Democratic House should start impeachment proceedings.

How outlets framed it: The Washington Post led with Trump's record low "handing Democrats a clear midterm edge." ABC News led with Democrats ahead in House vote choice, and NBC News called Americans "anxious, pessimistic and deeply unhappy with Trump." Newsmax's wire story led with the 71% wrong-track figure and added that "Democrats face significant popularity problems of their own." Fox News, reporting its own poll on Oct. 14, led with Trump's record-low 36% approval amid inflation.

What's still unknown: All three polls finished interviewing by Oct. 13, so they do not capture events since. National numbers do not decide individual House and Senate races. Democratic voters reported more enthusiasm in the Post-ABC poll (72% absolutely certain to vote versus 65% of Republicans), and whether Republicans who plan to vote in person on Election Day turn out is a key open question.

Figures are each pollster's own published results. Post-ABC-Ipsos: 2,545 adults, Oct. 9–13, ±2 points (±2.2 among 2,032 registered and likely voters). NBC News Decision Desk/SurveyMonkey: 19,135 adults online, Sept. 28–Oct. 12, ±2.6 points. Fox News: Oct. 9–12. Polls are snapshots and national numbers do not decide individual House or Senate races. Mode changes over the years can affect record comparisons, as the Ipsos topline notes.