DOJ sues to block Alaska Senate certification if Sullivan narrowly loses

From the filing: "An election result may be impacted by voter confusion if: (1) Senator Sullivan does not win the election; and (2) had all votes cast for Daniel J. Sullivan been cast instead for Senator Sullivan and Alaska's rank-choice process played out accordingly, Senator Sullivan would have won the election." The suit brings one claim under the National Voter Registration Act, citing the law's stated purpose of protecting "the integrity of the electoral process." Roll Call noted the complaint does not say how an investigation into voters' intent would work.

The other Sullivan: Daniel J. Sullivan, a Petersburg fisherman and former teacher, filed on May 29, about two weeks after the senator, Courthouse News reported. The complaint says he had never run for office, switched his registration to Republican just before filing, asked to appear on the ballot as "Dan Sullivan," hired a consultant who works for Democrats and told The New York Times he voted for Democrats in the last three presidential elections and for Peltola. In the August primary, the complaint says, Peltola took 49.5%, the senator 41.4% and Daniel J. Sullivan 2.5%, which CNN put at 4,107 votes.

What already happened in state court: after complaints filed on behalf of Alaska Republican Party chair Carmela Warfield, Beecher wrote in June that his candidacy was "filed with a purpose to confuse or mislead," according to the complaint, and kept him off the ballot. A state trial court reversed that decision on June 26, and the Alaska Supreme Court affirmed on June 29, with its full opinion still pending. CNN reported the ballot now lists Daniel J. Sullivan with no party affiliation and the senator as "Registered Republican" and the incumbent.

Strongest case for the suit: the Justice Department says "the sole purpose" of Daniel J. Sullivan's candidacy is to help Peltola, Courthouse News reported, and points to the state's own elections director reaching that conclusion in June. Right-leaning outlets have tracked the same concern for months: the New York Post called him "Decoy Dan" in August, and Just the News reported this month that the American Accountability Foundation referred alleged coordination to the Justice Department and that Americans for Public Trust filed an FEC complaint alleging a Democratic strategist worked for his campaign while on the board of a group running ads against the senator; the strategist, Amber Lee, denies any violation. President Trump wrote on Truth Social that "Even 1, 2, or 3% could make the difference" and called it a "SCAM," CNN reported.

Strongest case against it: Daniel J. Sullivan has said he is not a Democratic plant. "It's a free country," he said in August, adding that "choice is good and voters' intent will be as varied as the candidates who are running," Courthouse News reported. Notre Dame election-law professor Derek Muller told CNN the theory is "strange and unusual" and that voter intent is "just impossible to measure after the fact," and said officials "went out of their way" to reduce confusion. Ben Ginsberg, formerly the Republican National Committee's top election lawyer, told CNN, "There is not a rational legal reason to do it."

What the evidence shows: on the Justice Department's side, the state's own elections director found in June that the candidacy was filed to confuse or mislead, and the candidate told The New York Times he backed Democrats in recent presidential races, according to the complaint. On the other side, two state courts let him run, the ballot labels the senator as the incumbent Republican and lists the other Sullivan with no party, CNN reported, and the complaint offers no method for telling which of his voters, if any, meant to pick the senator. Voters can also rank both Sullivans first and second, CNN noted.

What's still unknown: when U.S. District Judge Sharon L. Gleason, the judge assigned to the case, will act; whether the department will seek an emergency order, which CNN said it had not yet done; and how any ruling would fit with Alaska's ranked-choice count, which CNN reported begins Nov. 18. Roll Call noted the department sued California last week to set aside more than 20,000 mail ballots, part of a wider set of federal election suits ahead of the midterms.

US Brief read the Justice Department's complaint (case 3:26-cv-00376, filed Oct. 22 in federal court in Alaska); quotes from it are from the filing. Expert reactions, the Truth Social post, the ballot wording and the tabulation date come from CNN; the toss-up rating and the California suit from Roll Call; Daniel J. Sullivan's August comments from Courthouse News; the FEC complaint and DOJ referral from Just the News. The Justice Department and Alaska's Division of Elections had not commented as of Friday morning, Pacific time, per Courthouse News. No emergency motion had been filed, according to CNN.