Wholesale prices jump 1.3% in September, most since 2022

What drove it: Prices for goods jumped 2.6%, the largest increase since the series began in December 2009, and more than 80% of that came from energy, which rose 10.8%, the BLS said. Gasoline alone rose 20.3% and accounted for half of the goods increase. Diesel, jet fuel, vegetables and residential electricity also rose, while egg prices fell 39.7%. Services prices rose 0.8%, led by wholesale and retail margins and a 3.4% jump in transportation and warehousing.

From the release: "Final demand goods: Prices for final demand goods advanced 2.6 percent in September, the largest increase since data were first calculated in December 2009. Over 80 percent of the broad-based rise in September is attributable to the index for final demand energy, which jumped 10.8 percent." — Bureau of Labor Statistics, Oct. 15, 2026.

Further up the pipeline: Costs earlier in the supply chain rose even faster. Crude petroleum prices jumped 28.3% in the month, and unprocessed goods bought by businesses were up 21.5% from a year earlier, the BLS said. Diesel fuel rose 21% and accounted for nearly half of the increase in processed goods, which CNBC said is a sign that energy costs are spilling into other categories.

Key numbers: Economists surveyed by Dow Jones expected a 0.6% monthly rise and 5.5% for the year, CNBC said, while a survey cited by Proactive Investors expected 0.5% and 5.3%. Either way, the report came in well above forecasts. Excluding food and energy, prices rose 0.7% in the month and 5% from a year earlier, according to CNBC. A narrower BLS measure that also excludes trade services rose 0.5%. Separate government data showed retail sales rose 0.8% in September, above the 0.4% forecast, but sales excluding autos and gas stations rose only about 0.25%, CNBC reported.

The Fed angle: After Wednesday's consumer price report showed 3.7% annual inflation, traders put the chance of a Fed rate hike at the Oct. 28 meeting at nearly 34%, up from under 18% a week earlier, according to CME's FedWatch tool as cited by CNBC. About 90% expect at least one hike by year-end. "With a second day in a row of higher-than-expected inflation numbers, it seems the Fed will have no choice but to raise rates again this year," Northlight Asset Management's Chris Zaccarelli told CNBC.

Market reaction: Bonds rallied rather than sold off. The 10-year Treasury yield fell 13 to 14 basis points to 5.05% by mid-morning, as a selloff in AI and chip stocks pushed investors toward government debt, Bloomberg and Proactive Investors reported. Stocks were mixed: as of 10:27 a.m. ET the Dow was up 0.6%, the S&P 500 was down 0.2% and the Nasdaq 100 was down 1.1%, according to Bloomberg, while the Philadelphia semiconductor index fell 3.5%.

What remains unknown: Whether the energy surge keeps spreading into everyday goods and services, or fades if oil prices ease. The BLS also revised its May through August figures, so September's numbers could change too. Retail sales outside autos and gas slowed sharply, which may mean high fuel costs are making shoppers cut back elsewhere, CNBC said, but one month of data is not a trend.

PPI figures are from the Bureau of Labor Statistics September 2026 release, which also revised May through August. Economist forecasts differed by survey: CNBC cited Dow Jones expectations of 0.6% for the month and 5.5% for the year, while Proactive Investors cited 0.5% and 5.3%. "Core" PPI has more than one definition; CNBC's 0.7% monthly figure excludes food and energy, while the BLS headline core measure also excludes trade services and rose 0.5%. Market figures were intraday as of mid-morning Eastern time and may have changed by the close.