Consumer prices rose 0.4% in October, more than expected
The consumer price index rose 0.4% in October after a 0.6% increase in September, the Bureau of Labor Statistics said, above the 0.3% rise economists expected. Core prices, which exclude food and energy, rose 0.3% for a third month. BLS did not publish a 12-month rate because October 2025 prices were not collected during last year's shutdown.
AI-assisted · US Brief desk · Sources listed below
What happened
The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers rose 0.4% in October, after a 0.6% increase in September, the Bureau of Labor Statistics said Tuesday. The figure is seasonally adjusted. Reuters and Dow Jones polls of economists had expected a 0.3% rise. Prices excluding food and energy, known as core CPI, increased 0.3% for a third straight month. A Dow Jones survey of economists had forecast a 0.2% core gain, CNBC reported.
From the BLS release: The shelter index rose 0.3% and accounted for over 30% of the monthly all-items increase. The food index rose 0.5% after being unchanged in September, with food at home up 0.4% and food away from home up 0.5%. The energy index rose 0.7%, after a 5.2% jump in September.
The gasoline index rose 1.0% after seasonal adjustment, following a 9.1% increase in September. Before seasonal adjustment, gasoline prices fell 0.7% in October, BLS said. BLS did publish a 12-month unadjusted change for gasoline, which was 37.4%. Used cars and trucks fell 1.2%, while new vehicles rose 0.2%. Transportation services rose 0.8%, medical care commodities rose 0.5%, and apparel rose 0.1%. The natural gas index fell 0.8%.
Why it matters
This is the last CPI report before the Federal Reserve's December policy meeting. Officials kept their benchmark rate in a 3.75% to 4% range at their October meeting, in a 10-2 vote, CNBC reported. Reuters said the October reading leaves the Fed on course to raise rates next month. BLS did not publish a yearly inflation rate for overall or core prices, because it could not collect October 2025 survey data during last year's government shutdown. The last published 12-month CPI rate was 3.7% in September, Reuters reported.
What’s next
Fed Governor Christopher Waller said he would support "more robust action" if inflation readings are higher than expected. "In that case, I believe a 50 basis point hike in the policy rate should be considered at the December meeting," he said, according to CNBC. Markets had largely priced in a quarter-point increase, according to CME Group's FedWatch, CNBC reported.
More context
What's still unknown: BLS could not publish 12-month percent changes for most indexes, including headline and core CPI, where October 2025 data are missing. A few item-level yearly figures were available, including gasoline, new vehicles (up 0.7%) and used cars and trucks (down 3.3%). The usual yearly inflation rate is scheduled to return with November's CPI on Dec. 10.
5 listed sources
- U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Consumer Price Index Summary — October 2026 (USDL-26-1685), Nov. 10, 2026
- Reuters (Lucia Mutikani) via Lufkin Daily News, US consumer prices rise above expectations in October, Nov. 10, 2026
- CNBC (Jeff Cox), Consumer prices rose 0.4% in October, more than expected, complicating Fed's inflation fight, Nov. 10, 2026
- AP, Inflation ran hotter than expected last month, underscoring affordability challenges, Nov. 10, 2026
- CNBC (Michelle Fox, Sean Conlon and Natalie Feary), 10-year Treasury yield jumps after hot CPI, Waller half-point hike comment, Nov. 10, 2026
References listed by US Brief; a source count is not a verification score.
Editorial sourcing notes
Monthly CPI, core, shelter, food, energy, gasoline and other item figures are from the BLS Consumer Price Index Summary for October 2026 (USDL-26-1685), released Nov. 10. Headline forecasts come from Reuters and Dow Jones economist polls, as reported in those outlets and on CNBC; the core forecast is from CNBC, which cited Dow Jones. The missing 12-month headline and core rates are from BLS. The last published yearly CPI rate of 3.7% in September is from Reuters. The Fed's October rate range and 10-2 vote, the Waller quote, and CME FedWatch pricing are from CNBC. AP confirmed the 0.4% increase was higher than expected. The hero photo shows the Postal Square Building in Washington, D.C., which houses the Bureau of Labor Statistics and the National Postal Museum (file photo, 2008).
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