October CPI on Tuesday will skip the yearly inflation rate
Tuesday's October CPI report will show only one-month changes for headline and core inflation, because the 2025 shutdown stopped price collection in October 2025, BLS says. It's the last CPI before the Fed's Dec. 8–9 meeting.
AI-assisted · US Brief desk · Sources listed below
What happened
The Bureau of Labor Statistics will release October's consumer price index at 8:30 a.m. ET on Tuesday, Nov. 10. Unlike a normal report, it will not include a 12-month inflation rate for the headline or core index. BLS says it "will not publish 12-month percent changes for October 2026 for indexes where October 2025 data are not available."
From the BLS notice: Federal agencies were shut or short-staffed from Oct. 1 to Nov. 12, 2025, and "BLS could not collect October 2025 reference period survey data." It carried September 2025 prices forward instead and never issued an October 2025 report. BLS warns that "in periods of general price increases, the carry-forward method may result in an underestimation."
What forecasters expect: The Cleveland Fed's nowcast, as of Nov. 6, puts October's one-month rise at 0.24% for overall prices and 0.21% for core prices, which exclude food and energy.
Why it matters
The yearly CPI rate is the inflation number most people hear, and this time it will be missing. This is also the last CPI report before the Federal Reserve meets Dec. 8–9. The Fed raised rates in September for the first time in three years and held in October. Fed funds futures still showed about a 65% chance of a December hike as of Thursday, Reuters reported, citing LSEG data.
What’s next
The yearly rate returns with November's CPI on Dec. 10, one day after the Fed's decision, according to the BLS schedule.
More context
Weak spot: Some previews still quote a yearly figure. CNBC cited a FactSet average of 3.9%, up from 3.7%, and the Cleveland Fed's model shows 3.74% by plugging in its own estimate for the missing month. Neither is a number BLS will publish for October.
The week's calendar: CPI comes after stocks' worst sell-off since April 2025. The Nasdaq closed Thursday nearly 12% below its Oct. 6 record, confirming a correction, Reuters reported. Take-Two reports Monday. CoreWeave reports Tuesday, and Cisco and Applied Materials report Thursday. October producer prices follow Friday at 8:30 a.m. ET, CNBC's calendar shows.
5 listed sources
- U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, 2025 federal government shutdown impact on the Consumer Price Index (FAQ), updated Sept. 16, 2026
- U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Schedule of Releases for the Consumer Price Index, accessed Nov. 8, 2026
- Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, Inflation Nowcasting, updated Nov. 6, 2026
- Reuters (Lewis Krauskopf) via The Globe and Mail, Wall Street's week ahead: As tech swoon roils market, U.S. inflation data on tap, Nov. 6, 2026
- CNBC, Stock market next week: Outlook for Nov. 9-13, 2026, Nov. 6, 2026
References listed by US Brief; a source count is not a verification score.
Editorial sourcing notes
The no-yearly-rate rule, shutdown dates and carry-forward method are quoted from the BLS shutdown FAQ (last modified Sept. 16, 2026). Release dates are from the BLS CPI schedule. Nowcasts are from the Cleveland Fed as of Nov. 6. Rate-hike odds (about 65%, LSEG) and market figures are from Reuters' Nov. 6 week-ahead report; the FactSet 3.9% yearly estimate is from CNBC. The hero photo shows the Federal Reserve Board's headquarters (file photo, 2008).
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