Home sales fall 5.5% to 3.75 million pace, lowest since 2010

In their words: "Home buying is difficult when mortgage rates have climbed to their highest levels since 2000, aside from a single month in 2023," NAR chief economist Lawrence Yun said. "As a result, home sales fell to their lowest level since August 2010." Freddie Mac's 30-year fixed rate averaged 7.33% in October, up from 6.86% in September, Realtor.com reported. Daily rates had risen to a 7.30% average on Tuesday after a hotter-than-expected October inflation report, Mortgage News Daily reported. Freddie Mac said Thursday that the average 30-year fixed rate fell to 7.11% this week, down from 7.18% last week, the fourth straight weekly decline.

Prices haven't cracked: The median existing-home price was $416,700, up 0.4% from $414,900 a year earlier. NAR said that is the 40th straight month of year-over-year gains. Single-family homes sold at a 3.41 million pace with a median of $421,900; condos and co-ops sold at a 340,000 pace with a median of $365,100.

By the numbers: Inventory rose 1.3% from September and 4.6% from a year earlier to 1.59 million homes, a 5.1-month supply, up from 4.7 months in September. Realtor.com called that the most homes for sale in seven years and the highest months' supply in 11 years. Sales fell from September in the West (down 9.7%), South (6.5%) and Midwest (3.2%) and held steady in the Northeast; from a year ago, sales fell in all four regions, most in the West (14.5%). First-time buyers were 29% of sales, down from 31% in September, while all-cash buyers rose to 29% from 27%. Distressed sales stayed near 2% of deals.

Two readings of what comes next: Yun pointed to strong job growth and said "there could be sizable pent-up demand if mortgage rates decline." Realtor.com chief economist Danielle Hale expects sales to stay near long-time lows for the next few months and said a strong economy, persistent inflation, an expected need for tighter Federal Reserve policy and heavy demand for capital from governments and companies, largely to fund AI investment, are likely to keep a floor under how low rates can go.

Sales, price and inventory figures are from the National Association of Realtors' Nov. 12 report. The economists' forecast is from AP. Regional, buyer-mix and monthly mortgage-rate figures are from Realtor.com's report on the release; Realtor.com is operated under license from NAR. Annual rates show how many homes would sell in a year if October's pace held for 12 months. Freddie Mac's Nov. 12 weekly survey (30-year average 7.11%) was added after the 9 a.m. PT release.