Fed decision and Big Tech earnings set up a pivotal market week
The Federal Reserve announces a rate decision Wednesday, the same day Alphabet and Microsoft report, with Amazon on Thursday and about a third of S&P 500 companies reporting this week. Futures on Friday priced under a 10% chance of a hike this week but about 80% for December.
AI-assisted · US Brief desk · Sources listed below
What happened
What's coming: The Federal Reserve announces its interest-rate decision Wednesday, with a press conference from Chair Kevin Warsh afterward. The same afternoon Alphabet and Microsoft report quarterly results, with Amazon on Thursday. About one-third of S&P 500 companies report this week, the busiest of the season, Reuters said.
The Fed: The Fed raised rates in September for the first time since 2023 to fight above-target inflation. Fed funds futures late Friday showed less than a 10% chance of another hike Wednesday but about an 80% chance in December, according to LSEG data cited by Reuters. Investors doubt the Fed wants to move a week before the Nov. 3 midterms. "Does he say something to give an idea about December, because right now the expectation is there is going to be a hike," said Walter Todd of Greenwood Capital.
Day by day (Morningstar calendar): Monday, Verizon. Tuesday, Coca-Cola, Boeing and Visa, plus consumer confidence and new home sales. Wednesday, the Fed decision, Alphabet, Microsoft, Ford and ServiceNow. Thursday, the first estimate of third-quarter GDP, September inflation data (PCE), Amazon, Eli Lilly, Mastercard and Roblox. Friday, ExxonMobil and AbbVie. Reuters also listed Intel, Sandisk, Chevron and Caterpillar among this week's reports.
Why it matters
The Nasdaq had its biggest one-day drop since June on Thursday after disappointing results from Meta and Lam Research. Hyperscaler capital spending is expected to reach about $800 billion this year, and investors want proof it is paying off. "The market's just not giving the benefit of the doubt to companies that are spending a ton of money," said Nick Giorgi of Alpine Macro. The S&P 500 is up 11% in 2026, and third-quarter earnings are on pace to grow more than 32% from a year ago, per LSEG.
More context
What would change the outlook: Strong spending guidance with clear returns from Alphabet, Microsoft and Amazon could steady AI stocks; a hint from Warsh that December is not settled could move bond yields. Oil is another wild card after Houthi attacks on Saudi energy sites this weekend.
What's still unknown: Whether the Fed signals a December hike, whether Big Tech raises or trims spending plans, and how markets price the midterm results.
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References listed by US Brief; a source count is not a verification score.
Editorial sourcing notes
Sourcing: Reuters (Lewis Krauskopf, Oct. 23, 2026, via CNA) for market context, futures pricing and analyst quotes; Morningstar's weekly calendar for report dates. Probabilities are from Fed funds futures as of Friday's close and change daily. This is not investment advice. Photos are Federal Reserve file images.
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