Fed holds rates at 3.75%-4% as two officials push for a hike

The dissenters: It was Cook's first dissent since she joined the Fed board in 2022 as a Biden appointee, CNBC said. President Trump has been trying to remove her over allegations about information on her home loan applications; the Supreme Court stopped his earlier attempt, and the administration has restarted the effort, with a hearing set for early November. Hammack said this month that financial conditions "don't seem restrictive" and that businesses in her district are "going full steam ahead," Reuters reported. Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan and Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari, who dissented for a hike in July, joined the majority this time.

From the statement (primary document): "Economic activity is expanding at a strong pace." ... "Inflation remains elevated. The accumulation of more information will help the Committee determine the policy stance appropriate to ensure a timely return of inflation to the Committee's 2 percent goal. The Committee will deliver price stability." CNBC noted that "strong pace" is an upgrade from "solid" in September, and that the Fed dropped the sentence explaining September's hike. Otherwise the wording barely changed.

What Warsh said: At his news conference, Chair Kevin Warsh again declined to signal whether the Fed will raise rates in December. "I don't believe in forward guidance, absent exigent circumstances, absent a crisis," he said, CNBC reported. He said the meeting "focused mainly on the price stability side of our remit" and that the job market has been "quite positive." Asked about the midterms, he said, "I didn't hear an utterance about politics," and that he did not believe the election "had any role in the decision." Early coverage did not report him addressing Cook's dissent or the effort to remove her. He also announced that starting in 2027, one of the Fed's eight yearly meetings will focus only on long-term strategy, with no rate vote or statement expected, and two will in 2028, CNBC and Axios reported.

The strongest case for holding: Officials including New York Fed President John Williams and Vice Chair Philip Jefferson argued the Fed could wait for more data after September's increase; Williams said there was "no need for urgency," per CNBC. The strongest case for hiking: Inflation has been above the 2% target for more than five years, and consumer prices rose 3.7% from a year earlier in September, Fox Business reported. The Fed's preferred gauge, PCE inflation, is due Thursday and is expected to rise to 3.7% from 3.4%, CNBC said.

What's still unknown: What Warsh signals about December at his 2:30 p.m. ET news conference, how Thursday's PCE and third-quarter GDP numbers land, and how Trump's renewed effort to remove Cook plays out. This was the Fed's last decision before the Nov. 3 midterms.

Sourcing: the FOMC statement released Oct. 28, 2026 at 2 p.m. ET (primary document); CNBC's decision story and live blog (Jeff Cox, Oct. 28) for the statement changes, Cook's first dissent, July dissenters and December futures odds; Reuters (Michael S. Derby, Oct. 28) for Hammack's comments; Fox Business (Eric Revell, Oct. 27) for September CPI; The Guardian (Oct. 28) for Trump's 1% remark. Warsh's 2:30 p.m. ET news conference remarks are from CNBC's live blog and Axios. Futures odds change through the day. This is not investment advice.