EPA's $45 billion methane rollback is a proposal, not yet final

What the evidence shows: The rules are not terminated yet. EPA's release calls this a proposal, and its rule text says comments are due 48 days after it appears in the Federal Register, with a virtual public hearing about 15 days in. EPA must then weigh comments before any final rule. Source: EPA proposal, Oct. 27, 2026, https://www.epa.gov/system/files/documents/2026-10/san-12726-ong-reconsideration-2-nprm-preamble-20261015-clean.admin_disclaimer.pdf.

What it would change: EPA lists five main changes. Low-output "marginal" wells, which EPA says are roughly four out of every five producing wells, would get their own, lighter category. EPA is taking comment on two ways to draw that line. The proposal would also end the Super Emitter Program, which lets outside groups flag big leaks. It would ease rules for tank covers and closed vent systems, accept 95% efficient flares for gas that comes up with oil, and give operators more choice of control devices.

By EPA's own numbers: The $45 billion is a total for 2027 through 2050, in present value at a 3% discount rate. That works out to about $2.7 billion a year. At a 7% rate, the total is $32 billion. EPA's analysis also projects 60 million more short tons of methane over the same period, plus 17 million tons of smog-forming VOCs and 2.3 million tons of hazardous air pollutants. Under the co-proposed option, those figures are 88 million, 25 million and 3.3 million. EPA says parts of its analysis may overstate the lost reductions.

The case for it: Zeldin said the 2024 rule, estimated at the time to cost $18 billion, was "burdensome" and "unworkable" for small operators. The National Stripper Well Association wrote that compliance costs "will make the wells uneconomical to operate," NBC reported. Republicans say the change keeps small wells open and adds supply as fuel prices stay high.

The case against it: Small wells leak far more than their share. EPA's own cited research found marginal wells produced about 7% of 2021 output but about 60% of methane from gas production, Oil & Gas Journal reported. Methane traps about 80 times as much heat as carbon dioxide over 20 years, NBC noted. "EPA should be fighting this waste, not making it easier," said Fred Krupp of the Environmental Defense Fund, per Fox Business. Liz Scott of the American Lung Association warned about added VOC pollution.

Timeline: March 12, 2025: EPA announces it will reconsider the 2024 rule. July 31, 2025: an interim rule delays deadlines. Nov. 26, 2025: deadlines are extended again. April 6, 2026: first revisions are finalized. Oct. 7, 2026: Zeldin previews the new plan in Santa Fe, Oil & Gas Journal reported. Oct. 27: Zeldin signs the proposal and Trump announces it in Lubbock, a week before the Nov. 3 midterms, the Washington Examiner noted.

What's still unknown: Which of the two marginal-well definitions EPA will pick, when the proposal will run in the Federal Register, and whether any final rule survives court. "I would expect it to be another lawsuit," said David Doniger of the Natural Resources Defense Council, NBC reported. EPA is also asking for comment on its own modeling assumptions.

Trump's quotes are from his Oct. 27 rally in Lubbock, Texas, as reported by NBC News and Fox Business. The $45 billion, emissions and comment-period figures come from EPA's prepublication proposal signed Oct. 27, 2026 (docket EPA-HQ-OAR-2025-0163); dollar figures are EPA's present-value estimates for 2027-2050. The 7% and 60% marginal-well figures are from EPA-cited research as reported by Oil & Gas Journal. The hero photo is a file photo of a Permian Basin well near Monahans, Texas, from March 2026, not from this event. US Brief could not load the AP account at publish time.