U.S. 10-year yield hits highest since 2007 after hot PMI
The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield jumped to about 5.05%, the highest since 2007, after strong September business-activity data. The 2-year yield rose to levels last seen in mid-2024 as traders marked up Fed hike odds.
AI-assisted · US Brief desk · Sources listed below
What happened
The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield jumped to about 5.05% on Wednesday—its highest print since 2007—after flash PMI data showed U.S. business activity racing to a multi-year high.
S&P Global’s flash U.S. Composite PMI Output Index rose to 58.4 in September from 56.0 in August, the strongest reading since mid-2021 in several wraps. Services led, but manufacturing output and hiring also accelerated, while price measures stayed sticky.
Rate-sensitive two-year yields climbed toward levels last seen in mid-2024 as traders marked up the odds of another Federal Reserve hike. Fed funds futures priced roughly 70%–73% odds of an October move, up from about 53% earlier in the day or week depending on the snapshot.
More context
Equities sold off as yields spiked: the S&P 500 dropped about half a percent and the Nasdaq roughly 1% in Reuters/CNA reporting, while the dollar firmed against major peers.
The bond move is the market’s way of saying growth is too strong—and inflation too stubborn—for the Fed to pause after last week’s recalibration hike. Fed Governor Michael Barr’s remarks that further hikes are likely needed reinforced that message.
Higher long yields raise mortgage rates, pressure duration-heavy tech multiples, and tighten financial conditions globally. Emerging-market currencies and rate-sensitive European sectors felt the spillover as the session progressed.
US Brief’s takeaway: watch whether 5% on the 10-year holds into the close and into next week’s data—not just the intraday high—and whether October Fed odds stay above 70%.
Additional framing: the Rates tag on the parent bullet signals the beat desk that owns follow-up. Numbers cited in the lead should be checked against the primary outlet’s latest correction if any appear after our lastUpdated time of Sep 23, 2026, 1:40 p.m. PT.
3 listed sources
- Reuters / CNA market wrap, Sep 23, 2026
- S&P Global flash U.S. PMI release coverage, Sep 23, 2026
- CME FedWatch odds commentary via CNBC/Reuters, Sep 23, 2026
References listed by US Brief; a source count is not a verification score.
Editorial sourcing notes
Intraday yields move quickly; figures below reflect Reuters/CNA-style wraps of the Wednesday session when the 10-year briefly printed near 5.05%.
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