10-year Treasury yield tops 5% after Trump says no Iran deal needed
The 10-year Treasury yield, a benchmark for mortgage rates, climbed back above 5% Thursday after President Donald Trump wrote that the U.S. doesn't need a deal with Iran, with Brent crude rising to $96.11 a barrel. CNBC put the yield at 5.125% as of 4:09 p.m. ET. The 10-year yield and oil prices were still changing after the stock-market close.
AI-assisted · US Brief desk · Sources listed below
What happened
The yield on the 10-year Treasury note rose 13.6 basis points to 5.125% as of 4:09 p.m. ET Thursday, according to CNBC, back above 5% after President Donald Trump posted that the U.S. does not need a deal with Iran. Barchart earlier called the move a three-week high. The bond market was closed Wednesday for Veterans Day; AP put the yield at 5.03% earlier in the morning, up from 4.98% late Tuesday.
Why it matters
The 10-year yield is a benchmark for mortgages and other long-term consumer loans. Freddie Mac's weekly survey put the average 30-year mortgage rate at 7.11% this week, and a 10-year yield above 5% makes a quick drop less likely. Traders already see a Federal Reserve rate hike in December as fully priced in, with another seen as likely in January, Bloomberg reported, after hawkish comments from Fed Governor Christopher Waller.
More context
The post: "We don't need a deal with Iran. Those days have long since passed," Trump wrote on Truth Social. "We've got their money, Hundreds of Billions of Dollars, and we've got their Strait!" In the same post he said he had asked Vice President JD Vance to focus his "complete and total attention" on what he called massive corruption and crime in Democrat-run cities and states, naming Minnesota, California and Illinois. Fox News noted that Trump did not give specific examples or elaborate on his Iran claims, and that it had asked the State Department for clarification.
Oil and the dollar: Brent crude jumped after the post, trading at $96.11 a barrel, up 3.6%, as of 4:00 p.m. ET, according to CNBC, after an intraday high of $96.28. U.S. crude was at $88.95, up 2.8%. Higher oil feeds inflation worries, which push yields up. The dollar index hit a fresh 19-month high of 103.14 earlier Thursday, Reuters said.
Stocks closed lower: After reversing early losses around midday, the major indexes finished lower. The Dow fell 189.40 points, or 0.36%, to 52,297.09; the S&P 500 fell 0.35% to 7,592.40; and the Nasdaq fell 0.39% to 25,366.09, according to CNBC as of 4:10 p.m. ET. The 10-year yield and oil prices were still changing after the stock-market close.
How outlets framed it: CNBC led with the Iran shift and described the corruption push as Trump trying to flip a post-election script. Fox News and the New York Post led with the Vance assignment on blue-state corruption and benefit fraud. Reuters and AP led with markets, treating the post mainly as a driver of oil and bond prices. CNA noted the post came hours after The Wall Street Journal reported that Vance was weighing face-to-face talks with senior Iranian official Mohsen Rezaei, and that Vance had been among Republicans blaming the Iran war for the party's midterm losses.
What's still unknown: Whether the post ends U.S. efforts to negotiate with Tehran or is a negotiating stance; what "we've got their money" refers to; and whether the White House will clarify. Neither the White House nor the State Department had publicly elaborated as of these reports.
13 listed sources
- Reuters via Euronext, Wall Street edges up, Nvidia drops after CEO resigns, Nov. 12, 2026:
- AP via Transport Topics, Oil prices rise after Trump says U.S. doesn't need Iran deal, Nov. 12, 2026:
- Bloomberg via SWI swissinfo.ch, Stocks Fall on Nvidia Crisis as Oil Lifts Yields: Markets Wrap, Nov. 12, 2026:
- CNBC, Trump says 'we don't need a deal with Iran', Nov. 12, 2026:
- Fox News, Trump asks Vance to focus on 'corruption and crime' in Dem-run cities, states, Nov. 12, 2026:
- New York Post, Trump orders Vance to focus on blue state 'corruption and crime,' says 'we don't need a deal with Iran', Nov. 12, 2026:
- CNA, Trump says US does not 'need a deal with Iran', Nov. 12, 2026:
- FXStreet, US President Donald Trump: 'We don't need a deal with Iran', Nov. 12, 2026:
- Barchart, Crude Oil Prices Gain as US-Iran Peace Optimism Wanes, Nov. 12, 2026:
- Freddie Mac, Primary Mortgage Market Survey, Nov. 12, 2026:
- CNBC, U.S. 10 Year Treasury quote, Nov. 12, 2026, as of 4:09 p.m. ET:
- CNBC, S&P 500, Dow Jones and Nasdaq Composite quotes, Nov. 12, 2026, as of 4:10 p.m. ET:
- CNBC, Brent crude (@LCO.1) and WTI (@CL.1) quotes, Nov. 12, 2026, as of 4:00 p.m. ET:
References listed by US Brief; a source count is not a verification score.
Editorial sourcing notes
The 10-year yield is from CNBC as of 4:09 p.m. ET on Nov. 12; stock indexes and oil prices are from CNBC as of 4:10 p.m. ET and 4:00 p.m. ET, respectively. Stock figures are as of after the 4 p.m. ET close; the U.S. bond market and oil futures were still open, so those readings may change. AP reported a 5.03% yield earlier in the morning. The U.S. bond market was closed Nov. 11 for Veterans Day, so Thursday's move is measured against Tuesday's close. The Wall Street Journal report on Vance and Iran is cited as summarized by CNA and FXStreet.
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