Oil tops $105 as Trump weighs renewed strikes on Iran
Brent crude jumped more than 5% to above $105 a barrel early Thursday after reports that the Pentagon is readying options to resume major combat in Iran. Treasury yields rose near their highest levels since 2002, and U.S. stock futures fell.
AI-assisted · US Brief desk · Sources listed below
What happened
Oil prices jumped Thursday as President Donald Trump weighs whether to resume large-scale U.S. military operations against Iran. Brent crude rose more than 5% to above $105 a barrel in early trading, and U.S. crude rose almost 5% to nearly $93, NBC News reported. Diesel futures gained 4.5% in Europe.
The trigger: The Atlantic reported Wednesday that Trump is weighing strikes before the Nov. 3 midterms. Axios reported that the Pentagon told U.S. Central Command several days ago to finish preparations for resuming major combat, with no date set. A White House official told Axios that Trump "holds all the cards" and has all options available. People familiar with the talks told NBC News no decision has been made. At a rally in San Antonio late Wednesday, Trump said a deal with Iran "isn't really something that I want to do," CNBC reported.
Bonds and the Fed: The 10-year Treasury yield rose to about 5.33%, near its highest since 2002, and the 30-year yield rose to about 5.69%, CNBC reported. Fed Governor Christopher Waller said Thursday that more rate hikes are needed, though "the hikes do not need to come at consecutive meetings." Investors expect the Fed to hold on Oct. 28 and raise rates on Dec. 9, CNBC said.
What’s next
The Treasury sells $22 billion of 30-year bonds Thursday afternoon, and weekly jobless claims are also due. The University of Michigan's October consumer sentiment reading comes Friday.
More context
Stocks: Before the opening bell, S&P 500 futures fell 0.6%, Nasdaq 100 futures 0.8% and Russell 2000 futures 1%, NBC News reported.
Since the war began: Regular gasoline averaged $4.36 a gallon Thursday, more than 45% higher than when the U.S. and Israel launched the war on Feb. 28, NBC News said. Diesel, at $6.28, is up almost 70%. Fewer than 23 ships a day passed through the Strait of Hormuz from Sept. 28 to Oct. 4, according to MarineTraffic data cited by NBC, compared with hundreds before the war.
What would change the story: A decision on strikes either way. Bank of America's commodities chief wrote in September that Brent could trade between $95 and $120 if skirmishes continue, and spike as high as $150 if a broader conflict damages energy infrastructure. Talks have stalled; Qatari mediators are waiting for Iran's reply to a U.S. counterproposal, Axios reported.
5 listed sources
- NBC News, Oct 8, 2026: Oil prices hit $105 and stocks tumble as Trump considers renewed strikes on Iran
- CNBC, Oct 8, 2026: Treasury yields rise as Fed's Waller says more hikes needed, investors await 30-year auction
- CNBC, Oct 8, 2026: Trump says he doesn't want Iran deal as U.S. reportedly prepares for 'massive bombing'
- Axios, Oct 7, 2026: Military ordered to be ready for possible Iran strikes as Trump weighs timing
- Sourcing note: Market data from NBC News and CNBC. Strike planning first reported by The Atlantic and detailed by Axios citing U.S. and Israeli officials; the White House response is included. Related US Brief: Fed minutes show most officials expect another rate hike by year end.
References listed by US Brief; a source count is not a verification score.
Editorial sourcing notes
Oil, yield and futures figures were reported in early Thursday trading, before the U.S. stock market opened, and will move. No decision on strikes has been announced; reports of the planning rely on unnamed U.S. and Israeli officials. The hero photo is a 2005 file photo of a tanker at an Iraqi oil terminal.
Like US Brief? You can support it with a tip.