The world's energy appetite is growing on every front, and AI is the wild card
Global energy demand rose 2.7% last year, with oil, gas, coal and renewables all growing at once, McKinsey said in its new outlook. Forecasters agree data centers are the fastest-growing slice of power demand, but disagree sharply on how big it gets.
AI-assisted · US Brief desk · Sources listed below
What happened
The world is not swapping old energy for new. It is using more of everything. Global energy demand rose 2.7% in 2025, and oil, gas, coal and renewables all grew at the same time, McKinsey said in its Global Energy Perspective 2026, released Sept. 30.
What the outlook says: "Over the past year, the energy transition has become an energy expansion," said Humayun Tai, who leads McKinsey's energy practice. In its baseline case, fossil fuel demand climbs from 295 exajoules in 2025 to 317 in 2030 before growth slows, Sustainability Magazine reported. By 2050, total energy use lands between 500 and 690 exajoules, depending on the scenario.
"Now we have a system, which is being driven by affordability and resilience, not sustainability," McKinsey partner Diego Hernandez Diaz told Forbes. He said oil and gas will stay in the mix longer than expected. Low-carbon investment still beat fossil investment for a second straight year in 2025, McKinsey found.
Why it matters
More demand means more spending on wires. McKinsey projects grid investment rising from $443 billion in 2025 to $970 billion a year by 2050. It calls the grid the transition's "ultimate speed limit." Who pays is a live fight. U.S. regulators and utilities are adopting special tariffs so data centers cover their own costs, Wood Mackenzie said.
What’s next
Watch the IEA's annual World Energy Outlook, utility filings on data center tariffs, and whether announced AI campuses actually get power hookups.
More context
Electricity is the fastest riser: The International Energy Agency expects world power use to grow 3.6% a year through 2030. That takes it from 28,200 terawatt-hours in 2025 to 33,600 in 2030. In the U.S., data centers will drive about half of the growth, the IEA said.
The AI wild card: Data centers are the fastest-growing power load in OECD markets, McKinsey said, with demand rising about 24% a year to 2030 in its baseline. Trade-press accounts of the report say they could use 10% to 15% of global power by then. The IEA's April estimate is far lower: about 3%, or roughly 950 terawatt-hours, double 2025's level.
Who supplies it: Wood Mackenzie said Oct. 1 that U.S. data centers and other big users have signed deals for 195 gigawatts of capacity. It expects gas to supply 52% of new U.S. power through 2035 and renewables 45%. In Asia, it sees data center use more than tripling by 2030, adding a Japan-sized block of demand.
Nuclear is back in the deal flow: Amazon signed a 20-year deal for 690 megawatts from Constellation's Calvert Cliffs plant in Maryland, Fox Business reported Oct. 1. The deal supports more than $3 billion in investment and a roughly 190-megawatt expansion due between 2030 and 2032.
The counterpoint: Not every announced project will be built, Wood Mackenzie warned, and AI is getting far more efficient per task, the IEA said. Oil is a near-term exception: the IEA expects world oil demand to fall 2.5 million barrels a day in 2026 as Gulf supply stays disrupted. Forecasts beyond 2030 vary widely.
10 listed sources
- Energy Global (Abby Butler), Sept 30, 2026: McKinsey Global Energy Perspective 2026: Shifting demand drives energy expansion as uncertainty reshapes the global outlook
- Energy Digital (James Darley), Oct 1, 2026: The Headlines from McKinsey's Global Energy Perspective 2026
- Forbes (Jamie Hailstone) via Yahoo Finance, Sept 30, 2026: Affordability And Security Reshaping The Energy Landscape, Study Finds
- Sustainability Magazine (Chloe Williment), Sept 30, 2026: McKinsey: The Energy Transition Enters an Era of Uncertainty
- Wood Mackenzie, Oct 1, 2026: AI is reshaping the power investment landscape
- IEA, Electricity 2026 — Demand (Feb 2026)
- IEA, Key Questions on Energy and AI — Executive summary (Apr 16, 2026)
- Fox Business (Bradford Betz), Oct 1, 2026: Amazon locks in nuclear power for 20 years as energy demand surges
- IEA, Oil Market Report — September 2026 (published Sept 11, 2026)
- Sourcing note: McKinsey and Wood Mackenzie are consulting firms with energy and tech clients; their figures are forecasts, attributed as such. We did not find an AP or Reuters write-up of the McKinsey report; core demand trends are cross-checked against the IEA's own published projections. Fox Business (right-leaning) is cited for the Amazon nuclear deal. Re-checked 8:34 PM PT Oct 3: added the IEA's September forecast of a 2.5 mb/d drop in 2026 oil demand so the 2025 'every fuel grew' finding is not read as a 2026 call.
References listed by US Brief; a source count is not a verification score.
Editorial sourcing notes
Lead: McKinsey Global Energy Perspective 2026, published Sept 30, 2026, as summarized in Energy Global (Sept 30), Energy Digital (Oct 1) and Forbes (Sept 30, via Yahoo Finance); we did not read the full McKinsey report. Wood Mackenzie (Oct 1) for U.S. large-load and Asia-Pacific data center figures. IEA Electricity 2026 (Feb 2026) and Key Questions on Energy and AI (Apr 16, 2026) read directly for global electricity and data center projections. Fox Business (Oct 1) for the Amazon–Constellation Calvert Cliffs deal. Caveat: the 10–15% data center share attributed to McKinsey in trade press conflicts with the IEA's ~3% estimate; both are presented as attributed forecasts. Re-check 8:34 PM PT: added IEA September OMR (2026 oil demand −2.5 mb/d) to the counterpoint; removeIds re-confirmed (fin-treasuries-worst-quarter still oldest).
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